Level 2

Mathematics and Statistics clarifications

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91268: Investigate a situation involving elements of chance using a simulation

Updated December 2014. This document has been updated to address issues that have arisen from moderation.

Students need to provide evidence of each component of the simulation process detailed in Explanatory Note 3 of the standard.


It is intended that students will be provided with a situation to investigate. The situation must be one where results cannot easily be obtained using theoretical probability models.

Providing feedback

It is appropriate for assessors to give feedback during the simulation design stage of the process. Further details are given in the Conditions of Assessment document. 

Simulation and data

Students need to design and carry out a simulation for the situation that they have been given. The data that they collect from carrying out the simulation will then enable them to make some conclusions about the situation.

Required quality of student response

Merit is with justification. This could involve discussing at least one assumption students have made in their simulation and demonstrating an understanding that the results of the situation provide an estimate, for example of a probability or a mean.

Excellence is with statistical insight. This involves a discussion of at least two assumptions and a reflection on the process used. There needs to be a link between the assumption made and its effect on the simulation process and possible impact on the probabilities used in the simulation. An understanding of the situation that is being investigated needs to be evident in the discussion.

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